Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast predicts another solid, if slightly slower, season for U.S. retailers in 2025, with total holiday sales projected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% to an estimated $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion from November through January. Although this expansion falls below last year’s 4.2% growth rate, e-commerce is forecast to be a key driver, with online sales up between 7% and 9%, potentially reaching $310.7 billion for the season.
Slower but Steady Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty
Deloitte credits the outlook to continued increases in disposable personal income (DPI), which is expected to grow by 3.1% to 5.4% during the 2025 holiday season. This income stability, analysts say, can help offset concerns about labor market weakness, high consumer debt, and stubborn inflation. “We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season,” explains Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending”.
While inflation continues to weigh on real sales volume, it also has a positive effect on sales measured in dollars, raising the dollar value of holiday purchases even as unit growth may lag. This “inflation tailwind,” as Deloitte describes it, is a key factor in the dollar gains retailers will record despite modest changes in the number of items sold.
E Commerce Remains the Bright Spot
Deloitte projects a strong festive period for e-commerce, forecasting online sales will rise between 7% and 9% compared to 2024—building on last year’s fast pace of 8% annual growth. If achieved, holiday e-commerce sales could total $305 to $310.7 billion. These robust digital gains will help buoy overall retail performance even as many consumers remain cost-conscious and seek online deals to stretch their holiday budgets.
According to Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, “We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty. Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses”.
Takeaways for Retailers
- Last year, U.S. retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline climbed 4.2% to $1.57 trillion, outpacing this year’s more restrained forecast.
- E-commerce, which excludes food services, gasoline, autos, and parts, saw $285 billion in sales for the 2024 holiday period.
- Retailers are urged to focus on value as economic uncertainty lingers: price sensitivity and promotional strategies will be decisive for both in-store and digital channels.
- The report notes that the health of the holiday shopping season is an important barometer for U.S. economic resilience, reflecting how households balance inflation, employment, and evolving digital habits.
The Big Picture
Deloitte’s 2025 forecast reiterates a reality for the holiday season—while economic headwinds persist, disposable incomes and a resilient consumer base will keep the U.S. retail engine running. Online spending will lead the charge, but growth, though solid, is slowing from pandemic heights. Retailers who emphasize value, digital deals, and customer experience are best placed to capture share in an increasingly competitive, omnichannel holiday environment.
