A new eMarketer release, leveraging 2025 data from McKinsey & Company, affirms a major shift in the U.S. holiday shopping mindset: 65% of U.S. adults plan to start their holiday shopping ahead of Black Friday this year. The extended shopping window is not only a response to economic uncertainty and tariffs but also reflects strategic retail moves, changing digital discovery habits, and the growing expectation for incentives and personalization.
- The Rise of Early Shopping: Why Shoppers Are Moving Sooner
- Tariffs, Pricing Pressures, and Product Prioritization
- Digital Transformation: Social, AI, and Mobile Reshape Discovery
- Implications for Retailers: Rethinking Promotions and Inventory
- Category and Consumer Insights: Practicality and Budget-Conscious Gifting
- The End of One Week Wonders: Holiday Shopping Goes Long
- Final Thoughts
The Rise of Early Shopping: Why Shoppers Are Moving Sooner
This expansion of the holiday timeline is supported by several converging factors. eMarketer notes that promotions are now launching weeks, even months, before Thanksgiving—with major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target kicking off special October events to secure early wallet share. The McKinsey survey of 4,000+ U.S. adults found that, while Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain symbolic shopping markers, fewer consumers are waiting for last-minute deals. As early as September, 26% of shoppers had started; by October, loyalty programs, influencer-driven guides, and pre-holiday sales are in full swing.
Tariffs, Pricing Pressures, and Product Prioritization
Ongoing inflation and new tariffs on consumer goods have further incentivized shoppers to buy early in anticipation of price hikes or to lock in discounts before inventory shortages. According to eMarketer and McKinsey, 75% of U.S. consumers now begin researching products before mid-November, and 79% spread their purchases throughout the holiday season rather than binge-buying during Cyber Week. Category-specific strategies are emerging: essentials (beauty, personal care, groceries, toys) are purchased up front, while some tech and luxury categories may see more concentrated spikes around Black Friday and Cyber Monday for the best discounts
Digital Transformation: Social, AI, and Mobile Reshape Discovery
Digital acceleration continues to be a core driver of early holiday shopping. AI-powered chatbots, personalized recommendations, and seamless social media commerce are now essential features. Consumers are using ChatGPT for gift ideas, product comparisons, and shopping assistance, and retailers have embedded AI in apps for tailored suggestions and reengagement prompts.
Social commerce is an equally powerful force, particularly among Gen Z and Millennials. With 82% of Gen Z on TikTok and nearly half planning more social-driven purchases in 2025 versus 2024, short-form videos, peer recommendations, and influencer guides are frontloading the shopping cycle. Millennials, now maturing as online shoppers, are quick to follow these behavioral shifts.
Implications for Retailers: Rethinking Promotions and Inventory
For retailers, this extended season demands new strategies in marketing, fulfillment, and inventory management. eMarketer and McKinsey highlight the need to:
- Front-load campaigns: Aggressive early promotions and loyalty-first offers are now critical to capture planners and optimize sales before the traditional rush.
- Balance urgency and personalization: Using data-driven insights and AI, brands can craft relevant messages, segment audiences for instant deals, and offer exclusive perks to loyal customers.
- Optimize for mobile and omnichannel: With 59% of shoppers preferring smartphones, seamless checkout, mobile push notifications, and click-and-collect options are must-haves.
Category and Consumer Insights: Practicality and Budget-Conscious Gifting
Higher grocery costs, more selective splurges, and a trend toward practical gift-giving are shaping basket composition. Practicality takes center stage… planned spending is down for some traditionally higher ticket purchases like technology, electronics, and home improvement products, but up for lower cost indulgences like beauty products, housewares, and sporting goods.
The End of One Week Wonders: Holiday Shopping Goes Long
The consensus from eMarketer, McKinsey, and Circana: the days of relying only on Black Friday/Cyber Monday blitzes are gone. Retailers that adapt now—by offering smarter deals, supporting AI- and social-powered discovery, and nurturing loyalty from October to year-end—are best positioned to thrive in the evolving holiday economy.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 holiday shopping season is being redefined by early starts, digitally-driven decision making, and consumer demand for value, flexibility, and inspiration. Brands that deliver a seamless journey from TikTok to checkout—and reward proactive planners—will capture share in this new, elongated retail landscape.
