On October 6, 2025, Adobe released its annual U.S. holiday online shopping forecast—and the numbers are headline-making: $253.4 billion in online sales is expected between November 1 and December 31, 2025, up 5.3% YoY from last year and setting an all-time e-commerce record.
Cyber Week and Spending Surges
Cyber Week 2025 will be a pivotal driver, with $43.7 billion (a 6.3% YoY jump) projected over the five-day period, making up 17.2% of overall seasonal spend. Cyber Monday is forecast to reach $14.2 billion (up 6.3%), maintaining its status as the biggest day for online shopping, while Black Friday shows even stronger growth with $11.7 billion (up 8.3%).
Thanksgiving Day will see consumers spending $6.4 billion online, a 4.9% YoY increase. Adobe notes that consumer deal-seeking is driving major spending shifts—with early shopping and longer windows for high discounts.
Mobile Dominance & Buy Now Pay Later Boom
For the first time, mobile devices are set to drive a majority, 56.1% ($142.7 billion), of the online holiday spend, up 8.5% YoY. This rapid shift highlights the maturation of m-commerce: in 2020, mobile comprised just 40% of holiday spend.
The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model is now mainstream. Adobe predicts $20.2 billion (up 11% YoY) in BNPL-powered purchases, almost all (79%) through mobile, as budget-conscious shoppers opt for payment flexibility this festive season.
Deep Discounts, Trading Up, and Hot Product Categories
Consumers can expect discounts up to 28% off listed prices in major categories—electronics (28%), toys (27%), apparel (25%), and computers (23%)—mirroring last year’s promo environment. Most discounts will peak on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, pushing shoppers to trade up for higher-ticket items—like premium electronics and sporting goods—where Adobe expects a 56% rise in units sold for high-end options.
Top-selling categories:
- Electronics: $57.5 billion (up 4% YoY)
- Apparel: $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY)
- Furniture: $31.1 billion (up 6.5% YoY)
- Groceries: $23.5 billion (up 9.2% YoY)
- Cosmetics: $8.4 billion (up 9.1% YoY)
Hot products include the Nintendo Switch 2, PS5, Xbox Series X, iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler, and trending toys like Disney Stitch Puppetronic and LEGO sets.
AI, Social Discovery, and New Shopping Behaviors
Adobe’s analysis shows a monumental 520% YoY rise in AI-powered traffic to retail sites. Over one-third of U.S. shoppers reported using AI services for product discovery, recommendations, and hunting for deals. Meanwhile, revenue linked to social media is projected to surge by 51% YoY, cementing platforms like TikTok and Instagram as crucial points for e-commerce inspiration and conversion.
How AI, Social Media, and Mobile Are Shaping Shopper Behavior
This year’s U.S. holiday season isn’t just about bigger numbers, but a fundamental shift in how and where people shop. With mobile now driving 56% of online holiday transactions, convenience and on-the-go discovery have become core to commerce. Consumers are turning to AI-powered services for everything: from researching products to finding deals and compiling inspiration. According to Adobe, over a third of shoppers are using AI-driven chat assistants, while generative AI traffic to retail sites is set to spike by 520% year-over-year this season.
Social platforms are equally transformative—social media-driven revenue is forecast to rise 51% YoY, and affiliates and influencers are expanding their sway over what, where, and how people buy. The holiday shopping journey now flows seamlessly from TikTok discovery to virtual AI recommendations, to fast mobile checkout, illustrating how 2025 marks a pivotal point for digital-first, highly personalized retail experiences. Retailers who embrace AI and social commerce, optimize every channel for mobile, and deliver fast, inspirational shopping journeys will be best positioned to capture the growing digital share of holiday spend.
Future Outlook
2025’s U.S. online holiday season will break all records, defined by $253.4 billion in sales, deeper mobile dominance, and transformative AI and social-powered shopping journeys. For retailers to compete, investing in frictionless mobile sites, flexible payments, rich discounting, and winning AI-first, social-first marketing will be essential to capturing the digitally-driven consumer surge.
