This year’s holiday shopping season is expected to set new records, with U.S. consumers projected to spend a staggering $253.4 billion online between November 1 and December 31, according to Adobe Analytics. The robust growth, up 5.3% compared to last year, signals both the resilience of e-commerce and the powerful influence of mobile, AI, and flexible payment options.
The Quarter-Trillion Dollar Benchmark
Holiday sales in 2025 are expected to surpass the symbolic quarter-trillion dollar mark. This milestone underscores the growing importance of online shopping for American families as inflation eases and consumer confidence rebounds. The expected jump in overall spend reflects thriving digital engagement and signals optimistic forecasts for retailers nationwide.
Cyber Monday’s Dominance
Cyber Monday is poised to retain its title as the biggest online shopping day. Adobe Analytics estimates sales will top $14.2 billion on this single day, constituting a critical portion of the total season’s revenue. This trend highlights the increasing influence of seasonal deal events and retailers’ ability to capitalize on strategic promotions.
Mobile Devices Redefining Shopping Patterns
Mobile shopping has moved beyond convenience to become the primary driver of holiday commerce. For the first time, Adobe predicts mobile devices will contribute more than half—an estimated 56.1%—of all online revenue. Additionally, seven in ten retail site visits are expected to occur via mobile platforms, underscoring how shoppers rely on their smartphones for both browsing and purchasing. The report indicates this mobile-first behavior is now a standard across all major retail categories.
Buy Now, Pay Later Propels Growth
Flexible payment solutions like buy now, pay later (BNPL) are gaining traction at record speed. Adobe’s data forecasts BNPL spending could reach as much as $20.4 billion for the season, up to 12% higher than last year. A particularly notable benchmark will be set on Cyber Monday, with BNPL purchases expected to surpass $1 billion in just one day. This shift highlights how more consumers are leveraging payment flexibility to manage holiday expenses and increase their purchasing power.
AI-Powered Shopping Acceleration
The report highlights an extraordinary surge in retail web traffic, as identified by artificial intelligence tools. Traffic originating from AI sources, including large language models, is projected to jump by over 500% relative to the 2024 holiday period. Thanksgiving Day alone is set to see the largest surge, with AI-driven visits increasing by upwards of 700%. This trend reflects significant changes in how shoppers discover products and make purchase decisions, with intelligent algorithms and personalized recommendations guiding new buying patterns.
Category Highlights: Top Gifts for 2025
Toys, video games, consoles, and electronics are forecasted to be this season’s most in-demand categories. The report emphasizes that these items “will fly off the shelves,” as families continue to look for entertainment and tech solutions to enhance their home environments. Retailers focusing on these categories are expected to see outsized success, thanks to persistent consumer interest and robust marketing efforts.
Technology’s Expanding Role
Advanced technologies are shaping every aspect of the holiday shopping experience. From AI-powered product suggestions to optimized mobile interfaces, retailers are deploying innovative solutions to capture shopper attention and streamline the buying process. The dramatic increases in mobile revenue share and AI-driven traffic stand as testament to these shifts, revealing that those who adapt quickly will reap the greatest benefits.
Looking Ahead: What Retailers Should Watch
The 2025 holiday season offers critical lessons for brands and retailers. Investments in mobile optimization, AI-driven personalization, and flexible payment systems have proven essential for capturing consumer demand. As the industry sets new benchmarks, businesses will need to keep a close eye on emerging tech and shifting shopping behaviors to ensure sustainable growth in the months and years ahead.
