De Risking the Holidays with BCG’s Three Step Plan for Retailers

Headwinds: Inflation, Tariffs, and Uncertain Consumers According to BCG, 2025 presents new and unique challenges, including macroeconomic uncertainty, increased tariffs, wavering consumer confidence, and growing inventory pressures.

Starting in Q2 2025, an ever-changing tapestry of tariffs began to complicate inventory decisions and raise price awareness among shoppers. In a June 2025 BCG survey, 65% of U.S.

consumers said tariffs would lead to higher prices, and roughly 75% said they would alter their shopping—buying cheaper goods, less frequently, or both if prices continued rising. This strategic trade-down behaviour will especially impact discretionary categories like sports equipment and home improvement.

However, BCG expects buyers to prioritize core gifting categories such as beauty and toys, with this effect even sharper in lower-income consumer segments. Tariffs are also throttling inventory flexibility…