De Risking the Holidays with BCG’s Three Step Plan for Retailers

The high-stakes nature of the 2025 holiday retail season is palpable, as outlined in the new strategy report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The message: success hinges on agile planning, pricing discipline, and omnichannel execution in one of retail’s most volatile years on record, when every move is magnified and failure can deliver a beautifully wrapped disappointment, even for the strongest brands.

Headwinds: Inflation, Tariffs, and Uncertain Consumers

According to BCG, 2025 presents new and unique challenges, including macroeconomic uncertainty, increased tariffs, wavering consumer confidence, and growing inventory pressures. Starting in Q2 2025, an ever-changing tapestry of tariffs began to complicate inventory decisions and raise price awareness among shoppers. In a June 2025 BCG survey, 65% of U.S. consumers said tariffs would lead to higher prices, and roughly 75% said they would alter their shopping—buying cheaper goods, less frequently, or both if prices continued rising. This strategic trade-down behaviour…