Artificial intelligence is set to rewire every facet of the retail industry. A new IDC Retail Insights report forecasts that by 2028, AI will manage 90% of the order lifecycle for 45% of retailers with minimal human oversight, a monumental leap in efficiency powered by today’s investments in real-time inventory control and automation. This shift will fundamentally change retail operations, customer interactions, and backend processes. Retailers investing heavily now in AI for orchestration and inventory management will be best positioned to lead in a world where order fulfillment is nearly autonomous.
- 1. Agentic Commerce Goes Mainstream
- 2. Deepfake Detection and Fraud Prevention
- 3. Global Trade Management Surges
- 4. Data Modernization: The Growth Engine
- 5. AI-Powered Store Monitoring
- 6. Hyper-Personalized Loyalty Programs
- 7. GenAI Boosts Frontline Workers
- 8. Price Optimization Gets Smarter
- 9. Rise of the AI Influencer
1. Agentic Commerce Goes Mainstream
IDC predicts the rise of agentic commerce, with an ecosystem of AI assistants, platforms, custom agents, and specialized tools expected to drive 15% of all e-commerce sales by 2027. These smart agents will help shoppers discover, evaluate, and purchase products in real time—ushering in a new era of personalized, seamless online shopping.
2. Deepfake Detection and Fraud Prevention
Fraud is evolving, and so is retail’s defense. By 2028, 60% of large retailers will deploy AI-powered deepfake detection, blocking 70% of social engineering and phishing attempts and slashing overall retail fraud losses by 35%. As schemes become more sophisticated, robust digital security becomes a non-negotiable priority.
3. Global Trade Management Surges
Managing global trade and compliance is another area ripe for transformation. IDC projects that by 2027, 30% of medium and large retailers will accelerate customs compliance by 90%, boost risk management by 75%, and speed up sourcing decisions by 50% with AI-powered trade tools.
4. Data Modernization: The Growth Engine
By 2027, 70% of large retailers will reinvest in their data management platforms, leveraging new tools and services to unlock powerful AI and data monetization strategies. For 30% of these companies, this data-first approach could translate into 30% incremental revenue growth.
5. AI-Powered Store Monitoring
Physical stores are getting a tech makeover. By 2028, half of all large retailers will use computer vision for continuous sales floor monitoring, driving a 40% reduction in shrinkage, improving planogram compliance by 50%, and accelerating restocking by 30%.
6. Hyper-Personalized Loyalty Programs
The loyalty landscape is also set for disruption. By 2029, 70% of retailers will become AI-powered experiential loyalty partners—delivering hyper-personalized rewards, boosting customer lifetime value by 35%, and building brand trust by up to 40%.
7. GenAI Boosts Frontline Workers
IDC forecasts widespread adoption of GenAI mobile assistants by 2028. For 45% of major retailers, these tools will help associates access real-time knowledge, cutting training times by 40%, raising productivity by 35%, and driving 25% higher customer satisfaction.
8. Price Optimization Gets Smarter
AI-powered price optimization and management (PO&M) planning is set for explosive growth. By 2027, IDC expects a 50% jump in vendor participation and a 30% improvement in price performance and productivity, spurred by smarter tools and competition among new entrants.
9. Rise of the AI Influencer
Social commerce is headed for a shakeup: By 2028, IDC forecasts that AI influencers will drive triple the engagement of traditional influencer campaigns, and boost conversion rates by 30% during AI-hosted live events, making automated personalities the new star sellers.
