The global beauty industry is on track to remain one of consumer goods’ strongest growth engines, with core categories expected to reach a market size of $590 billion by 2030. Even as the macro environment stays volatile, beauty is still viewed as a “darling” category, fueled by expanding definitions of beauty, new subcategories, and shifting consumer behaviors.
A bigger, broader beauty market
Core beauty segments—color cosmetics, skin care, fragrance, and hair care—are projected to grow at about 5% a year over the next five years, slightly below the 7% pace from 2022 to 2024, when inflation and strong volume both pushed up sales. Within that, skin care is expected to account for about 40% of sector value, confirming its role as the category’s long-term growth anchor.
Beyond the core four, the wider “extended beauty” universe—including aesthetics, men’s grooming, sun care, bath and shower products, supplements, and spa services—represents an additional $820 billion in value and is growing even faster in some pockets. Men’s participation in beauty and self-care is accelerating, while sun care is expected to expand at nearly 8% annually, driven by innovation.
Where brands are betting
Beauty executives are becoming more selective about where they place their biggest geographic bets. In the latest survey, 51% of leaders plan to prioritise expansion in North America, while about 70% expect very high growth in India and the Middle East.
These ambitions sit alongside a continued eastward shift in influence: China remains critical but is no longer the sole engine of growth, and markets from Saudi Arabia to Brazil and South Korea are shaping new trends and expectations in beauty. Overall, the message to brands is clear: there is no single hero market, so portfolios and investment theses must be diversified.
Fragmented consumers and “true value”
Beauty shoppers are fragmenting along attitudes rather than simple demographics. Instead of one dominant trend, brands see clusters of consumers prioritising “clean,” “science-backed,” “luxury,” or “value-for-money” propositions in different combinations.
Mass and “masstige” brands have gained ground as inflation pushes consumers to scrutinise every purchase and look for products that deliver strong perceived value at lower prices. At the same time, nearly half of global consumers now mix price tiers—pairing prestige serums with mass mascaras, for example—forcing both brands and retailers to cover a wider span of price points in order to capture the full “beauty bag.”
Founders, marketing, and the limits of hype
Celebrity and high-profile founders still help brands take off quickly, but their impact on long-term loyalty is limited. In the latest research, founders ranked lowest among reasons consumers keep buying a brand; product performance and emotional connection matter more.
Marketing is also at a crossroads. Social media remains powerful, but acquisition costs are rising, and consumers report declining influence from traditional influencers in the United States, Europe, and China. Physical retail has re-emerged as the top source of beauty inspiration, followed by friends and family and online retail, which means stores are now both sales and media channels.
Channels and AI: opportunity with caution
Online beauty is projected to reach over 30% of global sales by 2030, supported by marketplaces, pure-play e-tailers, and brands’ own direct‑to‑consumer sites. At the same time, grocers, discounters, and non-traditional players are expanding into beauty, intensifying competition offline.
AI is reshaping everything from product development to media planning, but consumer trust is mixed. Globally, around 60% of shoppers are sceptical of AI-generated content, while in China, about 83% believe AI recommendations are better than human ones. Brands are encouraged to treat AI as a business transformation lever—not just a marketing gadget—while staying transparent enough to preserve credibility.
