The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) newly released 2025 Retail Returns Landscape reveals an eye-popping forecast: U.S. retailers are expected to process $849.9 billion in merchandise returns this year, representing nearly 15.8% of total sales—a slight decrease from 2024 but still indicative of how consumer expectations, e-commerce habits, and reverse logistics are reshaping the retail economy.
Nearly One in Six Sales Will Be Returned
According to the NRF’s data, online sales remain the main driver for returns, with an estimated 19.3% of digital purchases coming back to retailers. Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, are fueling this trend—averaging 7.7 online returns in the past 12 months, more than any other generation.
Returns Are No Longer the End of the Transaction
Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, noted, “Returns are no longer the endpoint of a transaction. They provide an opportunity for retailers to create a positive experience for customers and can translate to brand loyalty. Retailers are constantly evolving and working to meet customer expectations, and they recognize the importance the returns process.” Read more in the official NRF press statement.
Fighting Fraud and Modernizing Reverse Logistics
Return fraud remains a significant issue: the NRF report found 9% of all returns are fraudulent, including overstated quantities, counterfeit item swaps, and “box of rocks” incidents. The study highlights that 71% of retailers are adopting AI-driven tools to combat fraud and streamline their reverse logistics operations.
Expert Commentary: Disney Petit on Sustainability and Circular Solutions
For expert insight into how retailers can adapt to this tidal wave of returns, sustainable reverse logistics leader Disney Petit, Founder and CEO of LiquiDonate, asserts the importance of circular economy principles and smarter reverse logistics:
“Retail returns are more than a headache—they’re an opportunity to recover value, strengthen brand equity, and support community organizations through responsible redistribution. As fraud and operational costs rise, sustainability-driven programs help retailers not only manage losses, but redefine their impact on society and the environment.”
Explore Disney Petit’s thought leadership and projects at LiquiDonate.
Returns: Retail’s Competitive Edge and Challenge
With 82% of shoppers citing free returns as essential and 71% reporting they won’t return to retailers after a poor returns experience, smart returns management is a strategic imperative. As brands face economic uncertainty, new fraud patterns, and shifting consumer priorities, the report underlines why investment in tech, policy updates, and sustainable logistics will shape retail’s future.
Read the complete NRF report here: 2025 Retail Returns Landscape.
