A new study by Momentum Commerce has forecasted a significant surge in Amazon's U.S. retail sales for the year 2024. The figures are staggering, with sales expected to reach an impressive $641.3 billion, marking a robust 19.9% increase or an additional $106.6 billion year-over-year.
The forecasts and estimates within the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard are based on Momentum Commerce's proprietary analysis and modeling, which incorporates multiple sources of Amazon US retail revenue data. Momentum Commerce regularly re-evaluates both the underlying data and models to ensure forecasts reflect seasonality, changes in observed revenue, and other factors.
Interestingly, the consultancy's projections shine a light on specific categories that are poised for substantial growth. CDs & Vinyl are making a surprising comeback, with sales anticipated to climb by 29.6%, reaching $607.5 million. Beauty & Personal Care is another category set to flourish, with a projected increase of 26%, translating to $36 billion in sales. Pet Supplies are not far behind, expected to grow by 25.3% and hit $22.6 billion.
Conversely, some categories are predicted to experience more modest growth. Books are forecasted to see a slight uptick of 0.9%, amounting to $9.1 billion in sales. Video Games are estimated to grow by 2.8%, reaching $5.6 billion, while Handmade Products are projected to increase by 3%, totaling $606.6 million.
"Amazon's overall retail growth within the US is driven primarily by the rapid expansion of sales across a number of CPG categories, rather than luxury, apparel, or electronics, and that's going to continue over the next year," said Andrew Waber, Director of Market Research at Momentum Commerce. "US consumers are clearly growing more comfortable and accustomed to purchasing grocery, health, and beauty products from Amazon despite emerging platforms like TikTok Shop focusing on these segments.
Delving deeper into niche markets, Momentum Commerce has identified Janitorial & Sanitation Supplies as the fastest-growing subcategory on Amazon, with an expected year-over-year rise of 176%, culminating in $1.6 billion in sales. Grocery & Gourmet Food, overall growth is predicted at 8.9%, but the Beverages subcategory is set to outpace this with a 27.3% growth rate, aiming for $9 billion in sales. Notably, Beverage sales are projected to constitute 45% of the total Grocery & Gourmet Foods revenue on Amazon U.S. in 2024, up from 38.3% the previous year.
Women's Jewelry stands out as the most stable category, with a forecast of $3.7 billion in sales for 2024, only marginally below the revenue figures of 2023. This stability indicates a consistent consumer demand within this segment.
