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Adobe Forecast 2025 U.S. Holiday Online Shopping to Surpass $250 Billion

On October 6, 2025, Adobe released its annual U.S. holiday online shopping forecast—and the numbers are headline-making: $253.4 billion in online sales is expected between November

Published: Oct 14, 2025 9:36 PM

By Jeanel Alvarado

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InsightsNews

Adobe Forecast 2025 U.S. Holiday Online Shopping to Surpass $250 Billion

On October 6, 2025, Adobe released its annual U.S. holiday online shopping forecast—and the numbers are headline-making: $253.4 billion in online sales is expected between November 1 and December 31, 2025, up 5.3% YoY from last year and setting an all-time e-commerce record.

Cyber Week and Spending Surges

Cyber Week 2025 will be a pivotal driver, with $43.7 billion (a 6.3% YoY jump) projected over the five-day period, making up 17.2% of overall seasonal spend. Cyber Monday is forecast to reach $14.2 billion (up 6.3%), maintaining its status as the biggest day for online shopping, while Black Friday shows even stronger growth with $11.7 billion (up 8.3%).

Thanksgiving Day will see consumers spending $6.4 billion online, a 4.9% YoY increase. Adobe notes that consumer deal-seeking is driving major spending shifts—with early shopping and longer windows for high discounts.

Mobile Dominance & Buy Now Pay Later Boom

For the first time,…

mobile devices are set to drive a majority, 56.1% ($142.7 billion), of the online holiday spend, up 8.5% YoY. This rapid shift highlights the maturation of m-commerce: in 2020, mobile comprised just 40% of holiday spend. The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model is now mainstream.

Adobe predicts $20.2 billion (up 11% YoY) in BNPL-powered purchases, almost all (79%) through mobile, as budget-conscious shoppers opt for payment flexibility this festive season.

Deep Discounts, Trading Up, and Hot Product Categories Consumers can expect discounts up to 28% off listed prices in major categories—electronics (28%), toys (27%), apparel (25%), and computers (23%)—mirroring last year’s promo environment.

Most discounts will peak on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, pushing shoppers to trade up for higher-ticket items—like premium electronics and sporting goods—where Adobe expects a 56% rise in units sold for high-end options…

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