Retail

Deloitte Finds 57% of Americans Expect Economy to Weaken Into 2026

The 40th edition of Deloitte’s annual Holiday Retail Survey reveals that American shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,595 in 2025, a 10% year-over-year decline, and the first notable dip since the post-pandemic recovery began.

Published: Oct 28, 2025 3:59 PM

By Jeanel Alvarado

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Deloitte Finds 57% of Americans Expect Economy to Weaken Into 2026

The 40th edition of Deloitte’s annual Holiday Retail Survey reveals that American shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,595 in 2025, a 10% year-over-year decline, and the first notable dip since the post-pandemic recovery began. As economic expectations sink to their lowest point since 1997, 57% of U.S. consumers expect the economy to weaken in 2026, and nearly eight in ten anticipate higher holiday prices. Despite the cautious sentiment, a majority still plan to honor traditions by shopping for loved ones and celebrating the holidays — albeit with heightened focus on value and affordability.

Economic Pressures Reshape The Holiday Mindset Deloitte’s Holiday Shopping Confidence Index (HSCI) signals that this season will be defined by restraint rather than splurging. Both key holiday categories, retail goods and experiences, are down (by 14% and 6%, respectively).

Gen Z and millennials are cutting spending the most, down 34% and 13%, respectively, while only Gen X consumers buck the trend, planning a modest 3% increase. High-income earners (those above $100,000) are maintaining spending on experiences but trimming back on retail splurges. Deloitte’s vice chair and U.S.

retail leader Natalie Martini explains, “While the upcoming holiday season is marked by economic uncertainty, the pull of tradition seems to have many consumers doing all they can to spread holiday cheer.

This includes seeking out value and expanding the shopping window to ensure they capture the best deals to make their holiday dollars go further…

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Deloitte Finds 57% of Americans Expect Economy to Weaken Into 2026

The 40th edition of Deloitte’s annual Holiday Retail Survey reveals that American shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,595 in 2025, a 10% year-over-year decline, and the first notable dip since the post-pandemic recovery began.

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