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E-Commerce Holiday Sales Set to Grow 7.9% in US and 5.3% in Canada for 2025

Holiday shopping in the USA and Canada is showing early shifts in spending patterns that promise a transformative season for retailers, one defined by surging e-commerce,

Published: Oct 16, 2025 5:11 PM

By Jeanel Alvarado

BeautyNews

E-Commerce Holiday Sales Set to Grow 7.9% in US and 5.3% in Canada for 2025

Holiday shopping in the USA and Canada is showing early shifts in spending patterns that promise a transformative season for retailers, one defined by surging e-commerce, inflation-driven behaviors, and the outsized influence of social media, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) 2025 holiday forecast. While inflation remains a key contributor to headline retail growth, consumers’ changing preferences and retailers’ evolving strategies are shaping a much more nuanced holiday landscape.

E-Commerce Surge Outpaces In-Store Growth E-commerce is again set to outdistance traditional brick-and-mortar shopping this season. The MEI projects online holiday sales in the U.S. to grow 7.9% year over year, compared to just 2.3% for physical retail stores.

Similar trends are expected north of the border, with projected online retail growth in Canada at 5.3% versus 2.5% in-store.

While inflation is a significant driver of these increases, potentially more so than actual sales volume, shoppers are seeking digital convenience, choice, and value, amplifying the ongoing shift to online-first holiday shopping. Total Retail Expansion and the Impact of Tariffs Across all channels, total U.S.

retail sales (excluding autos) are expected to rise 3.6% from November 1 to December 24, 2025. Canadian retail sales are on track for 2.8% year-over-year growth…

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E-Commerce Holiday Sales Set to Grow 7.9% in US and 5.3% in Canada for 2025

Holiday shopping in the USA and Canada is showing early shifts in spending patterns that promise a transformative season for retailers, one defined by surging e-commerce,

Unlock the rest of this story

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