Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast predicts another solid, if slightly slower, season for U.S. retailers in 2025, with total holiday sales projected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% to an estimated $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion from November through January. Although this expansion falls below last year’s 4.2% growth rate, e-commerce is forecast to be a key driver, with online sales up between 7% and 9%, potentially reaching $310.7 billion for the season.

Slower but Steady Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty

Deloitte credits the outlook to continued increases in disposable personal income (DPI), which is expected to grow by 3.1% to 5.4% during the 2025 holiday season. This income stability, analysts say, can help offset concerns about labor market weakness, high consumer debt, and stubborn inflation. “We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season,” explains Akrur Barua, economist,…